Direct answer
Calculate an illustrative probability-impact score and priority band while preserving organization-specific scales, thresholds, and risk appetite.
What to know
- Use consistent units for all inputs.
- Validate zero and negative values before dividing.
- State the forecasting assumption before using an output for a decision.
- Reconcile calculator results with the approved project data date and baseline.
How to apply it
Enter current, controlled project data. Review the formula and model limits before communicating the result, and retain the input values with the analysis.
Formula
Illustrative score = probability × impact. The page uses probability 0–1 and impact 1–5; its bands are examples, not universal PMI rules.
Worked example
A probability of 0.6 and impact of 4 gives a score of 2.4 and the example Medium band. Your organization may classify it differently.
Common mistakes
- Mixing currencies or data dates.
- Reporting excessive decimal precision.
- Treating one formula as a guaranteed forecast.
Exam and practice connection
PMP questions can test both calculation and interpretation. Read the wording and identify the requested metric before calculating.